Infotrak Poll Reveals the Party Winning Kenya's Political Contest

President William Ruto is spearheading the broad-based government as Kenya heads toward the next general election. He is expected to go head-to-head with a candidate yet to be named by the opposition.

Analysts suggest Ruto has a strong chance of winning in several regions, thanks to political alignments and local leadership support. The key regions likely to favor him include Rift Valley, Nyanza, Western, Coast, and North Eastern.

1. Rift Valley

Rift Valley remains the President’s political backyard. UDA and ODM, both part of the broad-based government, are the dominant forces across most counties here. Only Nakuru and Laikipia appear to lean more toward opposition politics.

Ruto is projected to pull strong numbers in Turkana, Narok, Samburu, and Kajiado, partly due to ODM’s influence in those areas.

He is also expected to dominate in Kericho, Bomet, Elgeyo Marakwet, Baringo, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, and West Pokot counties largely populated by the Kalenjin community, to which he belongs. Voters there are likely to rally behind him as “one of their own.”

2. Nyanza

Traditionally an ODM stronghold, Nyanza is home to top party officials including Party Leader Oburu Oginga, Deputy Party Leader Simba Arati, Chairperson Gladys Wanga, and Deputy Chairperson Otiende Amollo. These leaders hold significant sway in the region and are expected to mobilize substantial support for Ruto’s re-election campaign.

3. Coast

The Coast is considered a competitive region, but most influential local leaders are now aligned with the broad-based government. The opposition has not mounted a strong campaign there so far.

Big names like Hassan Joho, Amason Kingi, Abdulswamad Nassir, Salim Mvurya, Fatuma Achani, Stewart Madzayo, and Mishi Mboko have all backed Ruto’s bid for a second term. With this backing, the President has a good shot at defeating his rivals in the region.

Despite the divisions, Ruto is expected to secure the bulk of votes in Kakamega, Vihiga, and Busia. He’s also likely to perform well in Trans Nzoia, boosted by Wetang’ula’s influence and a notable Kalenjin voter base. This puts him in a strong position to take the majority of votes from Western Kenya.

5. North Eastern

North Eastern is another region where the opposition has made few inroads. Most elected leaders from Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa are part of the broad-based government and have declared support for Ruto’s re-election bid.

Notable figures such as Governors Nathif Jama of Garissa, Mohamed Adan Khalif of Wajir, and Mohamed Adow of Mandera, alongside several MPs and senators from the region, have aligned with the government. With this bloc united behind him, Ruto is well-positioned to carry the region.